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BBVA Research forecasts further increases in housing prices and a slowdown in sales
BBVA Research anticipates that housing prices in Spain will continue to rise over the coming years. According to its latest real estate observatory, properties are expected to increase by 10% in 2025 and another 7% in 2026, driven by solid demand supported by job creation, rising wages, moderate interest rates, and the formation of new households, both national and foreign. In addition, the purchase of second homes by foreign buyers will continue to strengthen demand.
On the supply side, the bank’s research department foresees an increase in new housing construction of 10% in 2025 and 12% in 2026. However, it warns that this growth will be insufficient to cover the unsatisfied demand accumulated between 2021 and 2025 (625,000 households), with a deficit of 134,000 homes in the last year alone. BBVA warns that, at the current pace, the gap between supply and demand will take years to close.
The report also points to a slowdown in housing transactions, already visible in notarial data: in August, 38,239 housing operations were signed across Spain, 1.3% less than a year earlier, the lowest figure in two years. BBVA Research notes that the lack of affordable supply and the high price levels could limit sales despite strong demand. The bank expects transactions to grow 1.8% in 2025, but to stagnate in 2026, with a slight decline of 0.3%.
The study identifies eight factors that are hindering housing construction: regulatory uncertainty linked to the Housing Law, shortage of available land, low public budget, labor shortages, low productivity, rising material costs, the expansion of tourist housing (around 400,000 units in Spain), and a reduction in bank financing—down 80% from 2008 levels. BBVA Research calls for greater political consensus, institutional coordination, and measures to improve the profitability of the construction sector in order to increase supply and ease tensions in the housing market.